Market Outlook: EUR/USD, Gold, and Oil Are Poised For Big Moves

February 17, 2020

Table of contents ▾

The FOMC Is In Operate Of The Securities industry
Euro Poised To Fall
Oil Prices Are Bottoming
Gold, On The Scepter Of Break Proscribed

The FOMC Is In Control Of The Commercialize

Spell spherical events ranging from the trade war to the deal deal, economic data, geopolitics, and the coronavirus have markets connected the move it is the FOMC that controls their longer-term direction. At the least this week, that is. This week we'll get a sneak peak into the mind of the commission via the proceedings and that, on with some key data points, testament have profound shock on the outlook for matter to rates this twelvemonth.

Powerful now, as I write this, the market has priced in at the least unrivalled rate-cut aside summer 2020 and the possibility of two, maybe three more by the end of the year. This is due in large disunite because of the coronavirus, an event whose economic impact is yet to be seen. The FOMC has said in that respect wish belik not be any cuts or hikes this class, Hieronymus Colin Powell just said the other day before Copulation that rife insurance policy was appropriate, and then the market is smarter than the FOMC or really, really wrong.

The data this week, aside from the transactions, includes PPI, Housing Starts/Permits, the Philly Fed MBOS, and Ahead Indicators; all pivotal reads on the state of the U.S. economy. Strong data could well sway the market and put reincarnate the bid we've seen in the dollar mark over the last few weeks.

Euro Poised To Fall

The EUR/USD is poised to accrue. This trade has not only the U.S. mind-set to locomote it but also the EC's. There is a lot of data from the EU this calendar week to let in business sentiment and PMI readings for the bloc. Most of the other data is res publica-specific with quite a bit from Germany. The terms military action suggests traders are banking on weaker than expected EU information and stronger U.S. data, a situation that testament lead to continuation of the low-spirited-trend. Now, Price action is consolidating at the new ground-hugging. MACD momentum is consistent with consolidation and merging with the low showing strength inside the movement. Stochastic is oversold but this condition nates hang in for quite while in a down veer. Support is near 1.0825, if price falls below there I would enter pessimistic positions, my target for next musical accompaniment is close to 1.0600.

Oil Prices Are Bottoming

Oil prices are bottoming after end week's OPEC meeting. The corporate trust has united to extend production cuts into the summer and possibly deepen them in an attempt to shore ahead prices. The price carry through is now sitting at a backside and forming a possible double-bottom because of it. The run a risk is the coronavirus and its impact happening demand, so long arsenic demand holds up prices should be fit to at leas get this support stage, about $50 dollars. The service line for the Double Bottom is adjacent $52.25, if price action can make a move above there and hold it we can expect to experience upward drift all over the next few weeks.

Au, On The Wand Of Break Retired

Gold is trending near a foresightful-terminus multi-year high and May be connected the verge of a break stunned. Resistance is near the $1,600 level where price action at law is forming a prostrate-flat-topped trigon. The indicators are rolling into a optimistic point that, if accompanied past a price move, points to higher prices in the short to medium term. The risk is with the dollar. If the FOMC proceedings and data support continued strength in the clam this trade could poor. If Leontyne Price action doesn't sustain a prisonbreak or resistance confirms at $1,600 looking at for gold to move down to the $1,560, $1,520, and $1,480 levels.